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Chamber approved reform of the retirement plan


2014 National Elections

CITY OF SÃO PAULO


THE THIRD OU THE FIRST MINISTER OF EDUCATION?


On wednesday, July, 16th, the new minister of Education of Brazil during the term of president JAIR Messias BOLSONARO (65), MILTON RIBEIRO (62), took office in a different kind of ceremony. President Bolsonaro was only remote present due is victm of covid-19, he, the man who joked with such kind of ilness calling it a 'litlle flu'. It was really a pathetic scene. At last the president found out the man he wanted to the Ministry of Education; a religious and christian one. Not only to satisfy himself but also the evangelical parliamentarians of Braziliam Congress. But also someone who is taken seriously. The two antecessors were nothing less than a disaster, although the first one was apparentely devoted to religion. The second one was an idelolical militant who took all the time fighting against supposed comunists among federal civil servants and at the public universities. Although he provoked a lot of problems to the domestic and international image of Brazil, Bolsonaro supported him until the Supreme Court started an investigation against behaviour of minister against the braziliam Constitution. Depending on the criteria adopted, Milton Ribeiro was the third, the first or even the fourth minister of Education. For who really is devoted to educational public cause he is the first. Officaly he is the third who took office, but is the fourth who was appointed by Bolsonaro. One was named before Ribeiro and his name was published at the National Official Press but did not take office because the independent press noticed he frauded documents on his curriculum vitae. The new minister of Education had not experience with education public matters, but has a curriculum vitae that is true and was vice rector of University Presbiterian of Mackenzie, a traditional center of São Paulo, who was founded by north american presbiterians in ninenteeth century. His possession speech, at least, was devoted to pointed out that wether he is a pastor he do respect the Constitution and one of its main cores, the laicity of the State. Finally, Mr Ribeiro said more than once he is going to talk with all state secretaries of Education and all parts involved with this theme. However, despite the wish of the minister, president Bolsonaro nomineed days before without asking for Ribeiro's advice more than one name to the National Counsel of Education (CNE) and it has power to rule a large spectrum of politics in the area. And the names nomineed did seem to have any relation with education matters But, despite all adversities, let's hope something positive can be done.


KEYWORDS (TAGs): - CNE; Miltom Ribeiro; New minister of Education of Brazil; National Counsel of Education; president Jair Bolsonaro; president of Brazil;


NEW RULES TO BASIC SANITATION FACILITIES


It took a long time, but, finally Brazil has an update law of Basic Sanitation Facilities. On July, 15, president JAIR Messias BOLSONARO (65) signed the law 14.026 after National Congress had passed it givint to the National Agency of Waters and Basic Sanitation (ANA) competences in order to edit rules to sanitation facilities. It means that private enterprises will be able to take part in such process. Till now was very difficult to see an private bussiness in the midlle of such business because rules were very hostile to private management. And it is not very difficult to understand once Brazil is a federal country and municipalities and states are the entities those have such right. Most of them have state enterprises to offer such facilities. Few of them, as SABESP a company of the state of São Paulo is well managed. However, its good performance is due, probably, because of capital opening did some years ago.


KEYWORDS (TAGs): - Basic Sanitary Treatment, Law to update general rules, President Jair Bolsonaro, Private business




CITY COUNCIL OF SÃO PAULO

CHAMBER APPROVED REFORM OF THE RETIREMENT PLAN

Wedensday, december, 26, 2019, the City Council of São Paulo has approved in a second session the legislative project PL-621/16 introducing the Reform of the Retirement Plan of all municipal servants. 50 of 55 councilors voted and 33 of them voted YES and 17 voted NAY. From now on the municipal servants will pay a percentage of 14 of their waves while public bosses will suffer an increase of six points of percentagem (from 22 percentage to 28. Such legislative project were introduced by the City Hall in december, 2016, at the last year of the mayor of São Paulo Fernando Haddad (PT) term. It took a long time to be approved due to a great rejection among the municipal servants. The present mayor of São Paulo, BRUNO COVAS Lopes (38) (PSDB) signed the law number 17.020/18 the next day.


KEYWORDS: - Bruno Covas Lopes, City Council of São Paulo, City of São Paulo, Councilors, Mayor of São Paulo, Reform of the Retirement Plan


Posted Julyl, 12, 2017

FORMER PRESIDENT LULA CONDEMNED


This afternoon, Wednesday, 12 of July, the federal judge Sergio Moro (46) condemned former president of Brazil, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (71), to nine years of jail for corruption, although he can stay free during the appeal to a Federal Instance. Judge Moro understood that former president accepted a flat at Guarujá beach, in the Coast of the state of São Paulo for benefits conceded to OAS, an enterprise of civil engineer that had many contracts with federal government. At the same time, Mr. Moro absolved Lula of being guilty for the acquisition of the ‘Instituto Cidadania’, Lula Institution to care of his presidential legacy and also of his militancy in social movements. It is the first time during a democratic regime in Brazil that a former president is condemned. Finally, judge Moro condemned Lula to pay a large amount of money.


KEYWORDS (TAGs): Corruption, Federal Judge Sergio Moro, Jail, Justice, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Lula, former president; president of Brazil, Sentence, Sergio Moro



Posted April, 1, 2016

THE COMING FUTURE OF BRAZIL



By Rui Tavares Maluf*

At this present moment, when I start writing this article, I am very aware that the course of 2016 Brazilian political life shall continue very difficult even in case of president Dilma Vana Rousseff (68) impeachment (this probability increased a lot since Tuesday, March 29th, when PMDB, the second more powerful party of this alliance, decided to not participate any more of the government of Miss Rousseff).

I myself understand that the president do deserve the impeachment for many more reasons than those within the legislative trial, although I am not focusing on this subject here. But my personal view on her faults doesn’t blind me. If the vice-president Michel Temer becomes president political polarization should be yet more intense; at least during some months. First of all, Temer was elected vice-president in 2014 in the same political coalition of Rousseff. Both of them suffer an investigation at Electoral Superior Court (TSE) for receiving illegal resources from contracts of the giant state petrol company, Petrobras. Members of his party, PMDB, are under Public Attorney investigation, as Eduardo Cunha, president of Chamber of Deputies, and Renan Calheiros, president of Senate. Besides, Rousseff’s supporters keeps trying to disqualify the impeachment process crying out that this is a plot. They also tried to politicize the judicial process and are spreading slogans around the world in such direction, as shown when a civil servant used the administrative structure of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to deliver a release. The own president used such words when calling the international community via ambassadors and press accredited in Brasilia. She intensified such discourse in many occasions afterwards, like a speech made in March, 30ths, during a public ceremony and the environment observed in March, 31ths, public rally in favor of his mandate. The slogan shouted repeatedly is ‘Não vai ter golpe’ (‘There will not have plot’). It is very clear that the president tries to align the end of March with the military plot of 1964 (52 years ago), ending the government of president João Goulart. In other words, two typical cases interrelated (one of fiscal misconduct and another one of corruption) are being treated as if they were a political affair where one side, opposition of “right wing”, was trying to dispatch the government with a coupe d’etat.

The way for success of an eventual Temer’s government is due only to some portion of him. What depends on strictly to his action? Certainly, considering the need to shorten political vulnerability, is very important he points out very clear political and economic measures that are recommended by the most credible economic and political analysts and political agents. At the same time he needs to show his political competence to construct an arch of political forces at National Congress and also in economic and social institutions that isolates PT and his small partner at the left wing PC do B. Members of opposition said that to collaborate with Temer’s presidency reclaims his absence of racing for reelection in 2018. The social cry against Dilma Rousseff’s government showed to be extensive to almost all political system as a giant rally Avenida Paulista showed during the crowded protests last March, 13, when the governor of São Paulo, Geraldo Alckmin, and last main presidential opposition candidate, Aecio Neves (both of PSDB) were vowed by many protesters at the time they tried to demonstrate their support for the cause. In other words, how social movements as MBL (Free Branzilian Movement) and Vem pra Rua (Come to Street) will react? Considering that some of them shall keep protesting, how much of leadership will they have over the majority of society? Another question: how the international community will react? Is it evaluating the Brazilian scene with good information and understanding?

The political economic agenda by itself is the most important thing to a successful government when economic activity is very bad (recession, high inflation, losing rank by risks investments agencies of and so on), since it is not pressed by an external factor commanded by judicial process that can damage a broad portion of political system. And it seems difficult that this will not disturb an eventual Temer’s government.

Call for a general election should be the correct attitude. However what institution should call under legal terms? The only constitutional way for accomplishing this is in definitive absence of president and vice-president (Article 81) before the terms reach two years. After this half term, only by the National Congress. In both solutions, the new president must complete the term of four years of the impeached president. Maybe, an Ammendment to the present Constitution could afford such initiative. However, an approval for any Constitution change needs the vote in favor for three fifths of all members being voted twice by each of the two houses (Chamber of Deputies and Senate).

But could things get better in a less probable scenario of veto of impeachment by Congress? No in absolute, because president Dilma Rousseff lost almost all legitimacy, show no competence, and even being now strictly aided by former president Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, his political godfather (and undoubtedly a leader), he is under a very tough judicial investigation. And worse than all: PT doesn’t want Dilma Rousseff impeachment, but neither support her few correct purposes, like a reform in pensions national system. Correct purpose, but contrary to her first political term. Even Lula is supported for not what he had done when president in his two terms.

Finally, although painful and no assuring by itself any solution, the impeachment is the correct way.

*RUI TAVARES MALUF is political analyst and consultant. Doctor in political science (USP), Master in Political Science (UNICAMP). Professor at Fundação Escola de Sociologia e Politica de São Paulo (FESPSP). Author of two books: Amadores, Passageiros e Profissionais (2011) and Prefeitos na Mira (2001).

TAGs:Dilma Vana Rousseff, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, PMDB, President, PT



BRAZIL 2014 NATIONAL ELECTIONS

Published May, 12, 2014

President Rousseff reelection campaign

Did something really change?

By Rui Tavares Maluf*

The unique possible answer to the question above is yes. I explain what happened to President Dilma Rousseff’s chance of holding Presidency safely. Since the article I published here last January, some trends of economic and political environment in Brazil are now well rooted. Economy is clearly worse as easily seen by the increasing of inflation rate, high interest rates (to combat inflation), fiscal weakness, denounces of misconducting of Executives in Petrobras (the state giant company of oil and gas), high spends to organize the Football World Cup starting next June (with lots of things to do till less than 40 days to start competition, among other issues. In other words, mainly the middle class is being aware of day by day growing of prices. But it is true that infra-structure and facilities problems under states and municipalities authorities of the great entities are being mixed with federals spheres as they were only of one ruler responsibility.

In politics, the two main opposition candidates Aecio Neves (PSDB) and Eduardo Campos (PSB) are on the road and the recent Opinion Polls from more than one Institute showed that the electorate is discovering them. Besides, electors generally point out needs of changes in Brazilian government with an increasing slide of them understanding that it must be done with new rulers.

If this problem reported was not enough, there are many politicians of Partido dos Trabalhadores (Worker’s Party) of the president Dilma Rousseff and former president Luis Inácio Lula da Silva (and also from the coalition parties) that openly call for a return of the second, arguing that only with him the party is able to defeat the opposition candidates. And such shouting arisen not only for eventual bad performance in Opinion Polls, but, certainly, because she is seen as someone who does not listen to what politicians has to say. In other words, she does not dialogue preferring to be indoors with her few confident advisers. The relationship of her government with National Congress is not good, although there was not caused by opposition parties, a minority force during almost all of her term.

During last days former president Lula denied to the press more than once that he will not replace her at the head of presidential formula, while president Rousseff said that she is ‘loyal’ to Lula as he is for her. More than this, for the first time she officially assumed she is candidate to reelection as a movement to avoid doubt of her decision to run. But, the need of realizing such acts shows by itself how bad things go.

Well, for now, president Dilma Rousseff need to recover some points in the presidential race Opinion Polls in order to put aside this movement against her right to run for reelections, coming from her official supporters. However, it will not be an easy task because at this moment it is not up to some eventual good political marketing strategies. What would change such scenario? Could be a victory of the Brazilian national team next July? Similar denounces against the parties of her main rivals? And most important of all, would things improve when the electors start to pay attention to the candidates’ proposals and comparing them? Maybe it could reverse situation, but it does not seem so easy of occurring.

In the opposition field, the two main candidates are smoothly struggling for whom of them (Neves or Campos) shall be seen as the most clearly opposition to Worker’s Party Era at the same time transmitting signals of not changing social improvements. Neves (PSDB) is starting ahead although is early to any forecast once Campos is still more unknown than Neves among electorate. Neves is eventually the preferred by important economic stakeholders. But even so, Neves and Campos have also a lot of work to do next weeks in order to assure that the growth of them is real.

Finally, is possible to repeat what we had already written last January about the presidential race. The next Brazilian president will be known only in the second ballot and will give us strong emotions.


*RUI TAVARES MALUF is partner of Processo & Decisão Consultoria, professor at Fundação Escola de Sociologia e Política de São Paulo (FESPSP), coordinating the course of Public Opinion and Marketing Inteligence (OPIM), political analist (doctor in political Science, USP, 2006, and máster in Political Science, UNICAMP, 1993).


TAGs: Brazilian Presidential Race, 2014, President Dilma Rousseff, Presidente of Brazil, Candidates of Opposition, Aécio Neves (PSDB), Eduardo Campos (PSB), PSDB, PSB, PT, Workers Party, Partido dos Trabalhadores, Former President Lula, Economy, Rui Tavares Maluf, Political Analyst.



Will President Dilma Rousseff be reelected?

By Rui Tavares Maluf*

Unfortunately I do not have ‘The Lamp’ to see the future of almost 10 months ahead and to respond the above question. But I think we analysts of Brazilian politics have some conditions to appoint the most probable trends of this race. First one, the next presidential and legislative national elections (that occurs at the same day, and at the same day with state elections to governors and state legislators in a Sunday of October according to Federal Constitution) shall be the hardest one of the Partido dos Trabalhadores Era (Worker’s Party - PT and surely there will be a second ballot for several) reasons, although president Dilma continues favorite to win the dispute.

Despite her favorite condition I point out some of the problems she and the party will face: 1) the economic conditions of Brazil are not really good; 2) Important Stakeholders not only among the economic analysts and the market noted it, but also in other social areas (expectations can eventually spread for all social groups); 3) political economy of Rousseff’s government doesn’t favor a real economic growth despite of recent ‘privatizations’ of airports and roadways and Brazil as an investment to foreign capitals is not as attractive as used to be some years ago; 4) inflation is getting higher and provoking an impact on the middle class expenses; 5) foreign politics of her government (not much different of Lula’s two terms) is moved much more by ideological view betting on populist rule nations and also authoritarian ones to challenge USA; 6) the Central Bank continues to increase the basic interest rate to combat inflation, making a radical contrary movement of the government discourse of the years 2011 e 2012, with unseen effects over inflation rate; 7) president Dilma Rousseff has not a leadership in Partido dos Trabalhadores as the former president Lula; 8) neither has she political skills to cope with allies parties like PMDB.

If the described factors were not enough to disturb PT once macro politics and macro economy is hardly an appeal to voters, there is the break of the last elections alliance. The Socialist Party (PSB), one of the most important members, put an end because his main leader, Eduardo Campos, governor of the northeastern state of Pernambuco, decided to run for Presidency. Although Campos is still unknown of the most Brazilians citizen, he is seconded by Marina Silva, of Rede, a new political party that did not get to be in legal conditions to run the present elections. Marina herself disputed Presidency in 2010 and got almost 20 million votes. She was a former member of PT and left the party because the disagreement with former president Lula. She had been minister of Environment of his government but did not accept his supposedly political preference for agribusiness. Last October, Ms. Silva surprised the political scene announcing her support to Campos after the refusal of Rede by the ministers of the electoral authority (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) in last October. Probably she will be Campos’s colleague running for Vice-presidency. Campos-Marina candidacy will probably attract a kind of elector that voted PT many times, that do prefer a party emphasizing social flags first of economic ones, but doesn’t intend to vote real opposition due to ideological differences. And eventually, Campos-Marina should be interesting for a little group of former PSDB electors who have differences with Aécio Neves. The other and most important allied (at least in number of seats at the Congress), PMDB, the party of the vice-president Michel Temer, is not content with PT and neither with the president Dilma Rousseff. Many regional sections have their own plans to state governor disputes and such races have important links with the federal one. And seems clear that PMDB engagement in 2014 reelection campaign of MS Rousseff will stand far way comparing with 2010.

I will not forget considering the chances of PSDB (Social Democratic Brazilian Party) the most important one of the opposition field. Its main problem till one month ago was the persistence of the former governor of São Paulo, José Serra, and also former candidate for presidency (2002 and 2010) to give up running once more for Presidency and announce his support for senator of Minas Gerais, Aécio Neves. Serra long reluctance was interpreted by many as a signal that he would try a third time although the new executive direction of PSDB is controlled by Mr. Neves supporters. Finally, Mr. Serra wrote in his twitter that the Party must work soon and hardly for Aecio Neves name. PSDB strategy will be show that its candidate is the real opposition to the actual government. PSDB had a different conception of the political economy, the one that understand that private sector is really important to economic and social development, fiscal adjust is essential for a manageable budget as to keep inflation at a very low rate. And all of this is seen as compatible and a good cause to assure better conditions for the most social fragile sectors. Besides, favoring eventually Ms. Dilma Rousseff, the race for governor of São Paulo, will be hard to PSDB, the party controlling the state since 1995. Governor Geraldo Alckmin is considered favorite, but at this time the process will be different of last times. Alexandre Padilha, minister of Health till some days ago (who ‘invented’ the Public Program ‘Mais Médicos’) with no political popular disputes backgrounds seems to be the kind of profile who can be fit a slice of PSDB electorate.

Finally I could say that Brazilian national election of this year tend to be as enjoyable as the World Coup that will be held hear from June 12 to July 13. Reader can understand the meaning of this sentence considering the importance of soccer (football) to Brazil.

*RUI TAVARES MALUF is partner of Processo & Decisão Consultoria, professor at Fundação Escola de Sociologia e Política de São Paulo (FESPSP), coordinating the course of Public Opinion and Marketing Inteligence (OPIM), political analist (doctor in political Science, USP, 2006, and máster in Political Science, UNICAMP, 1993).


TAGs:Aécio Neves; Alexandre Padilha; Brazil; Geraldo Aclkmin; José Serra; Marina Silva; National Elections of October 2014; Run for Presidency; President Dilma Rousseff; Former President Lula, Former Governor of São Paulo; Senator of the state of Minas Gerais; Rede; State of São Paulo; Rui Tavares Maluf; Political Analyst; PSB; PSDB; PT.